I call him Gamblor, and it's time to snatch NZ back from his neon claws!!!

So it is budget day eve, tomorrow we will see exactly what it is this Government has in store for our economic future.

By all accounts we are going to see English present us with a budget that has many plans which will n0t take effect until after the election. It looks like John Key has said to Bill, "Hey Bill, do you think New Zealand likes me? I want to know but I'm afraid to ask. I know, you could write New Zealand a note and ask if he/she likes me." If New Zealand votes Key back in, we like the budget, if he doesn't get voted in Labour may reverse the budget.

So, what are we going to see tomorrow? Cuts, cuts, cuts is the short answer. For the first time in a very long time we will see a zero budget (no increase in spending), yet at the same time Key has promised us increases to health, education, justice and infrastructure. In order to keep spending the same over all yet increase it in certain areas they have to make big cuts.

Where are the cuts going to come from? Kiwisaver, student loans, working for families and "government departments" are where Key has said there will be cuts but beyond that we have no specifics.

Within the "Government departments" the chief executives are being left up to their own devices as to how they meet their targets. The most likely outcome is the slashing of backroom staff. What we keep hearing from Key and co. is that our Government departments are too big and inefficient, we must put more emphasis on the front line staff. In some cases this may be true though I have seen little evidence of it. In reality, the place where memorable, emotive five word catch phrases don't work, it is the back room staff who do the necessary work so that the front line staff can do theirs.

This Government is currently borrowing over $300 million per week and they plan to get us back in the black by cutting services and leaving it up to the private sector. Hang on a minute, wasn't it the private sector and de-regulation that got us into this mess?

So with Key and English placing their bets, how will it end? Red or black?

We don't have a spending problem

Last week on Real Time with Bill Maher there was and excellent point made, the US Government doesn't have a spending problem, they have a revenue problem.

The main reason given is that corporations now screw the tax system so much that GE, the second largest company in the world made a profit of US$14.2 billion, yet they got a tax rebate of US$3.2 billion.

Until corporations pay their fair share we will continue to see Government cut public services while these companies get tax rebates and their executives get huge tax cuts.

Spending Cuts Loom

This week on Radio NZ's panel spoke to Dr Ganesh Nana from BERL (Business and Economic Research Limited) he spoke about the looming state sector cuts saying,

"The easiest and simplest way to get the Government's books back into any sense of balance is to get economic growth out there and that's what's sorely missing...I havn't got any evidence that we've got an unproductive public service. I'm just waiting for the facts of how much the minister is suggesting we can cut out of the public sector whilst still retaining a growth scenario and the quality of services. In 1990 we did go down the road of cutting public spending at the depth of the recession and we elongated that recession significantly and I would argue that one of the causes of our productivity problems we have now is those sorts of cuts that do impact the economy over the long term."

There you have it, an economic expert who is critical of the public sector cuts. We are still waiting for the facts, so far all we really no is Mr English is planning on at least cutting back (if not eliminating altogether) the services he deems to be "nice to have" and will be retaining (if not cutting as well) those he deems as necessary.

I'm desperately looking forward to this years budget, you can always count on budget day under National for a good ol' pace around the house saying "What do they think they're doing, am I the only one who thinks this is bullshit?"

Last year we saw tax cuts for the rich and a decrease in new spending, it looks like this year we are going to see a continuation of those tax cuts (and possibly more of them if Peter Dunne's income splitting bill goes through which it looks likely to) and severe cuts in services.

If we had any wastage in public spending I would gladly say "Yep, that money is not being used effectively, let's fix that situation." but as Dr Nana said above there really is no evidence to say that our public sector is inefficient.

All that can happen in the situation following budget day is that it's going to be harder for those who really need these services, the rapidly disappearing middle class will be pushed further back.

When the gap between rich and poor reaches breaking point a rebellion will happen.