I call him Gamblor, and it's time to snatch NZ back from his neon claws!!!

So it is budget day eve, tomorrow we will see exactly what it is this Government has in store for our economic future.

By all accounts we are going to see English present us with a budget that has many plans which will n0t take effect until after the election. It looks like John Key has said to Bill, "Hey Bill, do you think New Zealand likes me? I want to know but I'm afraid to ask. I know, you could write New Zealand a note and ask if he/she likes me." If New Zealand votes Key back in, we like the budget, if he doesn't get voted in Labour may reverse the budget.

So, what are we going to see tomorrow? Cuts, cuts, cuts is the short answer. For the first time in a very long time we will see a zero budget (no increase in spending), yet at the same time Key has promised us increases to health, education, justice and infrastructure. In order to keep spending the same over all yet increase it in certain areas they have to make big cuts.

Where are the cuts going to come from? Kiwisaver, student loans, working for families and "government departments" are where Key has said there will be cuts but beyond that we have no specifics.

Within the "Government departments" the chief executives are being left up to their own devices as to how they meet their targets. The most likely outcome is the slashing of backroom staff. What we keep hearing from Key and co. is that our Government departments are too big and inefficient, we must put more emphasis on the front line staff. In some cases this may be true though I have seen little evidence of it. In reality, the place where memorable, emotive five word catch phrases don't work, it is the back room staff who do the necessary work so that the front line staff can do theirs.

This Government is currently borrowing over $300 million per week and they plan to get us back in the black by cutting services and leaving it up to the private sector. Hang on a minute, wasn't it the private sector and de-regulation that got us into this mess?

So with Key and English placing their bets, how will it end? Red or black?

So it has come to this...

So it has come to this, Rodney Hide has resigned as leader of the ACT Party (though he will stay on as a minister) and I am unhappy about it. First off, Rodney Hide is everything I despise in a politician and over the last two and a half years ACT have been the tail that wags the dog. They have passed hard line policy against the wishes of the National Party, but of course National need ACT for the big policy changes that they can't pass alone. Act managed to pass the three strikes law despite the fact that wherever it has been tried around the globe it does not work, they passed the 90-day right to sack law against the research saying it will not work and against the wishes of Labour Minister Kate Wilkinson.

At the time of writing this Rodney has resigned and Don Brash is tipped to be the new leader though it has not yet been formally announced.

So why am I unhappy with this, well ACT have been poling below 2% and with all the strife they have been in over the past two years there was really no chance of them getting anyone but Rodney elected, and I was looking forward to seeing him getting his ass handed to him in the election.

I think what worries me most about Brash taking over is twofold, one: what kind of a prick would come out and state that he wants to be the leader of a party he is not even a member of, performing a coup de grace on that parties current leader within a week.

Secondly, and perhaps what worries me most is that Brash is a hard line, free-market, worshiping at the alter of Milton Friedman type politician, he will make it his job to implement these economic principals of a free for all, low tax corporate orgy when what we need now something else, something more linked to the brilliant Mr John Maynard Keynes (funny how the economist I like the most has a name very similar to one of the politicians I like the least).

Now lets try and figure this whole situation out a bit, Brash announced his interest in running ACT on Saturday, but we have no idea how long he has been in talks with the party.

The party may have even been wooing Brash for a while as Rodney has become a liability.

The quick and decisive nature of the deal puts Brash on the front foot, it makes him look like a strong leader and Rodney like a little bitch who will just roll over when he is told.

How much influence did the National party have on this? Brash is Key's predecessor and they are very likely still good pals.

Rodney seems to have gone along with this very easily, which leads me to believe that this decision has been in the works for some time.

So what does this all mean come election time? Brash is going to look good in theory, a strong man willing to take control and save the sinking ship, but how will he fare with the voters? I think we will see very little change in the poling up to the election, some will like him for getting rid of Rodney and some will resent him for the same reason.

I think because Brash is an old National leader, that National will do whatever they can to get him in, primarily running a weak candidate, a patsy if you will (and probably a list MP anyway), to give Brash the electorate win.

National know there is a slim chance of them governing alone but it is unlikely so they need to set up their coalition partners, and if they have to form a coalition they would prefer to do it with just ACT, so expect to see some compliments coming ACT's way from John Key.

We're seven months out from the election and already it's getting interesting, I can't wait for things to really heat up.

Update: turns out this leadership change had been in the works for a while, here's what the Herald has to say.